30 Days to Dismantle Global Fuel Infrastructure: Treasury's Lukoil Deadline Threatens Supply From Bulgaria to Brooklyn

Picture this: you have 22 days to sell a multibillion dollar refinery that supplies 80 percent of a country’s fuel, complete due diligence across three continents, negotiate terms that satisfy both a sanctioned Russian oil giant and the US Treasury, structure the deal so none of the money actually goes to the seller, find financing from banks terrified of secondary sanctions, and oh yes, make sure the whole thing gets approved by regulators who have already blocked the last buyer for vague reasons about Kremlin ties. Sound impossible? That is exactly what the US Treasury Department thinks counts as adequate time for an orderly wind down. On November 15, Treasury extended the deadline for Lukoil’s international asset sales from November 21 to December 13, and officials are treating this three week reprieve as if they just solved the European energy crisis. Meanwhile, gas stations in Finland are already running dry, Bulgaria is preparing emergency legislation to seize its largest refinery, and buyers who might have paid fair value are now circling like vultures waiting for forced liquidation prices. What Treasury calls an extension, markets are treating as a countdown to supply disruption. The gap between Washington’s press releases and the reality unfolding in refined products markets reveals something crucial about how these sanctions actually work and who pays the price when diplomatic tools meet physical supply chains. The details get worse the deeper you look.