Six Months, If We're Lucky: The Arithmetic of Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The Pentagon told Congress on April 22 what the Navy has known since late March and refused to say out loud. In a classified briefing whose outline was first reported by the Washington Post at 2:43 PM Eastern on April 22, defense officials estimated it will take up to six months to fully clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, and that any serious clearance effort is unlikely to begin until the war with Iran ends. Gasoline and oil prices, by implication, will stay elevated through the midterm elections.

Six months is not an aggressive estimate. It is the best case.