Uninvestable: Why Big Oil Is Apprehensive About Trump's Venezuela Deal
So here is what we know so far:
The Reserves That Were Never Audited
In early 2011, Hugo Chávez announced Venezuela had surpassed Saudi Arabia to claim the world’s largest proven oil reserves at 300+ billion barrels. That figure became gospel in energy markets and remains the number OPEC publishes today. There’s one problem: it was never independently verified.
OPEC doesn’t audit member reported reserves. It publishes whatever governments claim. And Venezuela’s tripling of its reserves happened under the notoriously corrupt Chávez regime when oil was trading near $100 per barrel, meaning much of what got reclassified as “proven” was marginal Orinoco heavy crude that’s uneconomic to produce at current prices.
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute, puts Venezuela’s actual recoverable reserves at 100 to 110 billion barrels. Rystad Energy estimates 81 billion. That’s still substantial, but it’s not the largest in the world. And more importantly, proving reserves in the ground means nothing if you can’t economically extract them.
Trump Meets Reality on January 9th
Less than a week after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, President Trump convened oil executives at the White House on January 9, 2026, hoping to secure $100 billion in commitments to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Seventeen companies sent representatives: ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, Marathon, Valero, Repsol, Eni, and various traders and independents.
What Trump got instead was a reality check.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, speaking directly to the president: “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it’s uninvestable.”
He continued: “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen here.”
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted his company is seeking $12 billion from Venezuela in unpaid arbitration awards. Trump joked: “Good writeoff.” Lance responded flatly: “It’s already been written off.”
The Writeoff History Trump Doesn’t Want to Discuss
Here’s what “seized twice” actually means:
ExxonMobil: In 2007, Chávez nationalized ExxonMobil’s Cerro Negro and La Ceiba projects in the Orinoco Belt. ExxonMobil sought $16.6 billion in ICSID arbitration. In 2014, they were awarded $1.6 billion, one tenth of what they sought. Venezuela has paid only a fraction. A 2023 resubmission awarded an additional $77 million. Still seeking payment.
ConocoPhillips: Also in 2007, Chávez seized ConocoPhillips’ stakes in the Petrozuata, Hamaca, and Corocoro projects. In April 2018, an ICC tribunal awarded ConocoPhillips $2 billion, which they settled that year. But the big one came in March 2019: an ICSID tribunal ordered Venezuela to pay $8.7 billion plus $20.4 million in costs for unlawful expropriation. Venezuela tried to annul the award. In December 2024, the annulment committee rejected Venezuela’s challenge. Total owed: approaching $9 billion. Venezuela hasn’t paid.
Across all international arbitration cases, Venezuela has been ordered to pay approximately $60 billion. Total Venezuelan international debt obligations: around $200 billion.
Nobody’s Rushing Back
The only U.S. company currently operating in Venezuela is Chevron, which stayed after 2007 under joint venture agreements with PDVSA. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said the company aims to increase production 50% over the next 18 to 24 months. That sounds impressive until you do the math: it would raise Venezuela’s output from roughly 1 million barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd. Venezuela used to produce 3 to 4 million bpd in its prime.
Gulf Coast refiners Marathon and Valero said they can process more Venezuelan heavy crude but made no capital commitments. Halliburton and the oilfield services companies expressed general interest but nothing concrete.
Even Energy Secretary Chris Wright had to walk back Trump’s $100 billion figure, admitting that amount would be needed “over the next decade” IF Venezuela becomes peaceful and establishes rule of law.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was even more blunt in a separate appearance, acknowledging that “the big oil companies who move slowly, who have corporate boards, are not interested.” He tried to spin it positively by noting that “independent oil companies and individuals, wildcatters” are calling, but that’s not the major capital Trump promised.