Thanks! Outside of trading the J and K (March & April settlements), an end to the fighting is clearly the only solution. What’s less clear is what happens the day after Trump declares victory and goes home… does Iran retain veto power over the strait alone? Under appreciated complication to the usual TACO.
So they went ahead and Japan also moving faster. All of the points in the piece hold, I just wonder why the IEA got behind it in short order after being sceptical on Monday.
Suspect it's because something is better than nothing, and nothing is whats goanna come out of Hormuz for a while.
Is it unrealistic to think that Atlantic Basin refineries will buy cheaper SPR barrels, thereby reducing purchases of barrels that can flow to Asian refineries instead?
"Releasing strategic reserves into a physical blockage is like using a garden hose on a house fire" .. well said. - PS, sorry for my joke idk 2 years ago, please unblock me on twitter :)
Thanks! Outside of trading the J and K (March & April settlements), an end to the fighting is clearly the only solution. What’s less clear is what happens the day after Trump declares victory and goes home… does Iran retain veto power over the strait alone? Under appreciated complication to the usual TACO.
Marco Papic and Jacob Shapiro have already discussed this scenario on their "Geopolitical Cousins" podcast. It is indeed an under-appreciated risk.
It takes two to taco! - ™️🌳
So they went ahead and Japan also moving faster. All of the points in the piece hold, I just wonder why the IEA got behind it in short order after being sceptical on Monday.
Suspect it's because something is better than nothing, and nothing is whats goanna come out of Hormuz for a while.
Great write-up. Thanks for putting it out there.
Is it unrealistic to think that Atlantic Basin refineries will buy cheaper SPR barrels, thereby reducing purchases of barrels that can flow to Asian refineries instead?
The only headwind to a price rise is the Jim Cramer is predicting one.
Never underestimate the power of the Cramer effect.
(But yeah, we get your point.)
Amazing write up. Thank you for sharing your wisdom.
"Releasing strategic reserves into a physical blockage is like using a garden hose on a house fire" .. well said. - PS, sorry for my joke idk 2 years ago, please unblock me on twitter :)