Renegade Resources

What DOE Reports Is Not What DOE Can Deliver

Big Hill is offline. West Hackberry is constrained. Bayou Choctaw is undeliverable in warm months. Bryan Mound is doing all the work, and Bryan Mound is…

Aug 4 • Tracy (Chi)

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July 2026

Cushing Is Approaching The Operational Floor

Faster than the paper market is priced for. Four to five weeks of buffer at current draw rates.

Jul 30 • Tracy (Chi)

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The Reopening Trade Is Ahead of Actual Barrels

Crude has round tripped to its pre war price on a reopening that hasn’t happened and a glut that isn’t here.

Jul 5 • Tracy (Chi)

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June 2026

Cuba. Same players. Different geography.

I wrote in January that the Venezuela operation was not about oil.

Jun 20 • Tracy (Chi)

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Copper: We Have a Problem

Why the world’s most critical metal is structurally short supply and consensus is still behind the ball.

Jun 1 • Tracy (Chi)

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May 2026

A Critical Mineral Deficit Trade: Long Term Trade

A critical mineral goes into structural deficit by 2027.

May 22 • Tracy (Chi)

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AI Capex Doesn't Care About the Strait Today. Mid 2027 is a Different Story

The Nasdaq printed a fresh all time high above 29,300 today with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.

May 8 • Tracy (Chi)

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The Hormuz Cascade, Tier Two

The Next 15 Industries to Reprice.

May 3 • Tracy (Chi)

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April 2026

UAE Exits OPEC: Reasons and Implications

A breakup years in the making, accelerated by a war the UAE didn't start and a revenue model under pressure on three fronts at once

Apr 28 • Tracy (Chi)

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Six Months, If We're Lucky: The Arithmetic of Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

The Pentagon told Congress on April 22 what the Navy has known since late March and refused to say out loud.

Apr 24 • Tracy (Chi)

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The $100 Billion Muni Sector Where Corporate Credit Risk Wears a Tax-Exempt Wrapper

How Private Credit Contagion Is Reaching Municipal Bonds Through Prepaid Energy Deals

Apr 9 • Tracy (Chi)

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March 2026

Middle East Production Offline: Current Status, Restart Timelines, and Well Damage Risk

March 30, 2026 Strait of Hormuz: Effectively closed since March 1, 2026 (29 days)

Mar 30 • Tracy (Chi)

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